Live Bar, November 13 -after China defeated Iran on men’s basketball 11, FIBA officially announced that the Chinese team was out in advance and updated asterisk on its official website (representing the World Cup qualification).

11th FIBA Official website screenshot Chinese team with asterisk

However, the FIBA official website has updated the group information on FIFA World Cup qualification, and the asterisk representing the Chinese team has been removed.

According to the analysis, the record of the Chinese team is indeed not enough to determine a qualifying quota. After the latest group information update on the official website, it can be found that the asterisk confirmed by the Chinese team has been removed (as shown in the following figure), that is, the Chinese team has not locked the World Cup qualification in advance.

13th FIBA Official website screenshot Chinese team asterisk has been removed

Then why hasn’t the Chinese team locked out in advance?

At present, only three teams in China, Kazakhstan and Iran (the first three teams in the group) have the opportunity to compete for the right to go out in Group F, of which the Chinese team has the greatest chance to go out.

In the remaining three games, the Chinese team will play against Balin, Kazakhstan and Iran. The opponents of Kazakhstan are Japan, China and Australia, the Iranian team has to face the Australian team (Iran 20-0 Australia has been sentenced, and the victory has not been calculated), the Japanese team and the Chinese team.

At present, only the following situations will cause the Chinese team to fail to qualify:

1. The Chinese team lost all three games, and the Iranian team and the Kazakhstan team both won all three games. In this case, their record will surpass the Chinese team, and the Chinese team will fall to the fourth place and cannot qualify.

2. The Chinese team lost all three games, and the Iranian team or the Kazakhstan team only lost one game. In this case, one of the teams will surpass China’s record, and the other team will draw with the Chinese team’s record. In the case that the two teams draw, since the Chinese team wins and loses each other against the two teams, it is necessary to calculate the goal difference between the two teams (at present, the Chinese team has a net victory over Kazakhstan by 12 points, net win Iran team 9 points).

Note:

1. If the Chinese team lost all three games, and the Iranian team and the Kazakhstan team both lost one game. In this case, the three teams draw, because the Iranian team has the worst winning and losing relationship among the three teams (twice lost to Kazakhstan), it will be directly eliminated, and the Chinese team will advance.

2. If the Chinese team only defeated the Balin team, the Chinese team’s record would come to 8 wins and 4 losses (20 points). In this case, the Iranian team and the Kazakhstan team must win in three battles to draw with the Chinese team (20 points). Since the Iranian team has the worst winning and losing relationship among the three teams, it will be directly eliminated and the Chinese team will advance. However, since the Australian team abstained from one game with 0 points, if it loses two more games, the points will also reach 20 points. In this case, the winning and losing relationship between the Iranian team and the Chinese team is the worst (2 wins and 4 losses), which needs to be compared with goal difference. If the Chinese team loses to the Balin team but wins either the Iranian team or the Kazakhstan team, the team will not be able to catch up with the Chinese team and the Chinese team will also advance.

To sum up, the Chinese team will only be eliminated if the Chinese team is completely defeated in the third battle and the Iranian team and the Kazakhstan team win in the third battle (or goal difference advantages against the Chinese team in extreme cases).

The Chinese team will face the next opponent Barlin in the fifth window of FIFA World Cup qualification at 0:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 15th.