Due to the recent controversy over the selection of Chinese men’s basketball national team, many people have noticed the talent pool of the Chinese Basketball Association national team.

In fact, this talent pool was first released in early March this year. At the beginning, the public mainly laughed at the publication of this talent pool, on the one hand, because there were obvious mistakes in location division, on the other hand, it is because from the literal meaning of talent pool “, some of the candidates here are very strange, which makes people confused about the selection criteria.

Next, let’s take a good look. This determines how the “talent pool” of the national team’s big list affects the national team’s big list.

Related reading >>> special topic of talent pool of China Basketball Association

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First of all, the most important sentence of this document is as follows:

“The plan for the construction of alternative talent pool for national team athletes and coaches of china basketball association published by china basketball association on february 24 shows that this plan is applicable to the selection of alternative talents for national team athletes and coaches in the paris olympic cycle; insist on warehousing before entering the team.”

Obviously, the meaning of this sentence, the talent pool, is to draw a circle for the national team selection first.

In order to figure out how the circle was drawn, we found the publicity letter issued by the Chinese Basketball Association on February 24 this year mentioned in the article (you can click to view it), this publicity letter clearly gives the warehousing plan of the talent pool in the attachment:

Men’s basketball will build a talent pool of 50 people and 24 people to prepare for the Paris Olympics five people and three people Basketball

In short, in order to determine how to put talents into storage, the Chinese Basketball Association specially set a data standard, using VORP ranking (yes, it is the data that has been constantly exposed in various CBA awards selection disputes in the last two years: the cumulative victory contribution value VORP).

For specific screening, the talent pool will first select X + Y = 45 from CBA, of which X is calculated by weighting the sessions of this season and last season (the maximum value is 30). Then select according to VORP ranking.

The number of Y is relatively simple, which is directly equal to 45-X. The selection of Y personnel only considers VORP performance last season.

That is to say, the performance of players this season only affects the selection of X players.

Formula in the original selection scheme

This warehousing plan also takes into account the injury situation. Apart from 45 people, two places are reserved for those who have been seriously injured in the last two seasons, as a result, players with low data but strong strength (but only if the data of these players two seasons ago must be at the top of VORP).

In addition, the program also reserved three places, giving excellent 19-22-year-old players who did not meet the above two conditions but entered the national second team.

Then, the remarks are for overseas players (which need to be the high-level league recognized by the Basketball Association, namely Europe, Australia, NCAA, G League, NBA), and can be directly put into storage.

Finally, there were 45-50 people in the talent pool.

After confirmation, the national team can only pick people from them.

So…… Is there any problem?

In fact, you have seen that the biggest problem of this talent pool is that the data is dynamic. If your national team strictly implements the mode of first warehousing and then entering the team, it will inevitably involve one problem: this talent pool, how often do we update it?

At present, the update frequency of talent pool is traceable.

For example, the first edition was released on March 7, that is, 4 days after the start of the CBA competition in the last stage of last season. Reasonable speculation, at that time, the data was calculated based on the data of several stages before CBA last season.

This announcement was made on October 31, after the end of the first phase. It is reasonable to speculate that this data is calculated based on the data of the first stage of CBA this season.

Well, it seems very reasonable at present. It seems that the Chinese Basketball Association plans to calculate at a stage to ensure that the data can be used to filter out a player who is in the best state in the near future.

For example, Lin Yi appeared in the latest talent pool.

So the summary is as follows:

The talent pool is calculated by data. This data ensures that players who play well can be selected, and also ensures that injured players have the opportunity to be selected. In addition to the data, he also left a place for young players.

Moreover, the students who designed this system also made a patch very thoughtful, saying: “due to special circumstances, it is really necessary to select from outside the library, the selection plan and the final candidate shall be submitted to the General Administration of Sports for approval according to the prescribed procedures.”

Standards are available, and special circumstances are also considered.

At present, this seems to be a good solution.

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Then, can we ensure that there are no bugs?

Unfortunately, it is not.

The biggest problem with this calculation method is that it is almost entirely based on CBA data, and it is inevitably led by the data when performing operations.

For example, this national team selection is an obvious example. The list submitted on October 5 was based on the data results released on March 7 half a year ago (neither the last stage of the regular season nor the CBA playoffs were covered), the development and changes of players’ abilities in the past six months have not been considered at all:

If a player outside the talent pool works very hard all summer, even if he makes great progress, the talent pool will still shut him out.

If a player in a talent pool spends all summer, even if he regresses obviously, he will not be swept out by the talent pool.

This possible “regression” leads to another problem:

In fact, according to the specific calculation formula, with the increase of matches in the new season, the impact of last season’s competition data on the overall data will continue to decrease, and the number of people in group X will start to be smaller and will gradually increase later.

In principle, this design is very good, avoiding the risk of instability brought by the sudden outbreak of some players in the new season.

But the problem is that X is indeed well considered, but once X is determined, Y’s selection range will be completely kidnapped by last season’s data, which cannot avoid the problem of “retrogression” in Y players.

Here, we can assume that if FIBA gives enough time this time, let Chinese men’s basketball draw up a national team list based on the new talent pool again?

Not so bad, you will find that the effect of the new talent pool is not much worse than that of 3 months.

According to our statistics, among the 47 people in the latest talent pool of the Basketball Association, only Cheng Shuai, Lin Yi, Wu Qian, license, Yuan Shuai, Zhang Fan, He Xining, Li Xiaoxu, Liu Zeyi, the 15 people Yu Changdong, Zhao Jiaren, Changlin, Tao Hanlin, Wang Zhilin and Yu Jiahao showed the data of this season.

In other words, there are only 15 people who are determined to enter the talent pool by the data of this season (they are X). The other 32 people still rely on last season’s data to enter the big list (they are Y).

Among these 32 people, if someone has a relatively large decline this season for various reasons, the screening mechanism of the talent pool cannot exclude them, and the head coach may still recruit these players into the national team.

In addition, if you are picky, there are still some bugs in this data system, such as overseas returning players.

This example is Zeng fanbo this year. Last year he entered the talent pool through the direct channel of overseas league matches, but this year, when he returned to CBA, he was absent for a long time due to injury, in addition, I have not played in CBA before. According to the above formula, I can’t enter the talent pool in any way, so I can only be outside the selection range of the national team.

In addition, according to the regulations, basically only CBA players and non-CBA national team players aged 19 and above have the opportunity to be selected into the talent pool, and because CBA only allows players over 18 to participate, so……

Yes, Yang Hansen, a 17-year-old genius of Guoqing, is now because of this situation. There is no way to be guided by Du Feng to go out to see the world.

Then, there are certain risks in the direct tickets for overseas players. For example, if the next East super or Japan Philippine League opens a sky-high price, Zhou Qi Guo Allen will join the Bay Area pterosaurus or other teams, did the national team close the door to them from now on? (The possibility is very low. Currently, this possibility is only proposed)

But anyway, Zhu Songwei is out of the question anyway.

Of course, let’s press these questions first. In fact, there is a doubt about the choice of players in this training session. According to the current statement, now the players on the national team’s training list come from the talent pool released on March 7, but judging from the first list updated in March, zhu Mingzhen did not appear in the talent pool of the five-member National team (but in the three-member basketball talent pool), but he was also included in the national team list.

We noticed that in the article of the State Sports General Administration in March, it was mentioned that the five-person basketball talent pool could directly provide three-person basketball, but it was not said that the three-person basketball talent pool could be used by the five-person national team.

Therefore, the talent pool is one-way interconnection, and Zhu Mingzhen does not have the qualification to be selected.

How did Zhu Mingzhen join the team this time? It seems that it is only possible that the patch mentioned in the last part of the previous section was added.

So you see, fishing for people is also possible, and the final decision is still in the hands of specific operators.

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Well, about the talent pool of the Chinese Basketball national team, this is probably the case.

In essence, this selection method is the same as that of CBA awards in recent years. The purpose is to use data as the basis as much as possible and to frame the scope for national team coach selection, in order to avoid some “too outrageous” related households being selected (this situation seems to have appeared next door), at the same time, it also left the head coach enough space to choose people (after all, this is a large list of about 50 people).

In terms of design concept and specific structure, this talent pool has many commendable points. Although some bugs are left, it is reliable on the whole.

But after half a day, I still have a huge doubt in my heart, that is:

“We have to work so hard, just to get rid of some absolutely outrageous wrong answers for the coach?!”

“A player who ranks 50 miles away in the country! (Almost 10 places in each position) how can it be entered into the national team list with only a dozen people!”

Besides, at present, these wrong answers also include such excellent players as Zeng fanbo, Zhang Ning and Li Yiyang…… (I don’t mean that they must enter the national team’s big list or training list, but compared with some other players in the “talent pool”, they are really not bad)

Li Yiyang gave 10.3 points and 8.3 assists this year (fourth in the assisting League). Although he may be far from the national team, it is a little pity that he didn’t enter the talent pool much.

Finally, returning to the official documents, when the official of the Chinese Basketball Association set up the talent pool at that time, the definition of the talent pool was: “In order to prepare for the Paris Olympic Games, the Chinese Basketball Association prepared for a rainy day and allocated high-quality resources at home and abroad, go all out to improve the core competitiveness of the national team.”

Um…… How to say, I still hope Chinese basketball is getting better and better.

After all, this is every basketball player (including player coach, media fan officer, etc.) The common wish.

China men’s basketball come on.

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(Text/nihil)